How does One play in a mirror match?
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0:00 Skipperino zalaerino
I don't know why I keep coming back to watching this woman being constantly teased by zalae.
I think it's zalae.
"Shouldn't have coiled, idiot!" Yeah, you tell 'em, Zalae.
8:12 cat tail for the win
I think the math here is best explained like this: the deck can be considered as already in a specific order. If Maly is the second to top card, coil screws you. If he’s third to top, coil wins you the game. Anywhere else in the deck coil doesn’t matter. Thus unless you hit fatigue coil doesn’t matter.
There are tiny mistakes here and there, you got lucky to be honest 😀
I'm happy to find out every once in a while zalae is as bad at math as I am all the time.
Assumption, quest just completed. You've drawn X cards until that point. Maly still in deck. K cards will be drawn with discount hero power. You will draw N more cards until end of game without coil.
K<= N/2 rounded up
———-
Probability Maly will be drawn in your next draws:
Pr[Maly drawn no coil] = N/(30-X) (add cards to denominator according to cards added to deck, doesn't matter)
Pr[Maly drawn coil used] = (N+1)/(30-X)
———-
Given you did (not) use coil, what is the probability Maly was discounted:
Pr[Maly discounted given maly drawn no coil] = K/N (he must be a part of the k cards drawn with the tap)
Pr[Maly discounted given maly drawn coil used] = K/(N+1)
———-
Probability of (not) using coil and discounting Maly:
Pr[Maly discounted and maly drawn no coil]
= Pr[Maly discounted given maly drawn no coil] * Pr[Maly drawn no coil]
= K/N*N/(30-X)
= K/(30-X)
Pr[Maly discounted and maly drawn coil used]
= Pr[Maly discounted given maly drawn coil used] * Pr[Maly drawn coil used]
= K/(N+1)*(N+1)/(30-X)
= K/(30-X)
———-
Equal chance. The only thing that matters is the number of taps. If coiling made you miss a tap, then the probability is less. Either from lack of mana or you "drew" your last tapable card with coil.
That second PT was definitely a mistake. Explorer would've actually triggered, and the hand was way smoother.
The chances of drawing a Malygos in either way were the same.
In that moment they had 10 cards left in the deck:
Option #1: Draw a Malygos with tap = 1/10
Option #2: Don't draw a Malygos with coil (9/10) and at the start of turn (8/9) and then draw it with tap (1/8) = 9/10 * 8/9 * 1/8 = 72/720 = 1/10
So it was a 10% chance both ways.